Qualification · Qualification 80

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

166.22 – 216.46

35%65%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

123 – 291

Prediction correct · off by 58.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 376.9 ±16.2

2393Robotichauns

Season APEX 212.3Event APEX 111.61Rank 17Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10137RoboKats

Season APEX 81.5Event APEX 7.34Rank 26Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 92

11037Clarksville Cyber Storm

Provisional

Season APEX 83.1Event APEX 47.27Rank 40Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 457.3 ±14.1

34Rockets

Season APEX 95.2Event APEX 44.21Rank 36Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 91

3966Gryphon Command

Season APEX 235.8Event APEX 106.37Rank 4Record 7-2-1Status establishedConfidence 100

11173STAR FORCE

Season APEX 126.3Event APEX 65.88Rank 15Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 91

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2393, 10137, 11037

/ 100 compat

Projected

166.2 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 2393, 10137, 11037

Auto

37.3 24%

Teleop

99.9 65%

Endgame

15.9 10%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 34, 3966, 11173

/ 100 compat

Projected

216.5 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 34, 3966, 11173

Auto

30.4 14%

Teleop

132.8 61%

Endgame

53.6 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.41 · Blue 2.11

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score166.2pts

Blue projected score216.5pts

Red win probability35%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 71%

Supercharged bonusred 8%, blue 8%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -50.2
Score range: 130–252
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 414 vs event baseline 200.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

376.9Season APEX457.3

37.3Auto30.4

99.9Teleop132.8

15.9Endgame53.6

0Consistency27

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	27	41
teleop	52	177
endgame	44	73
foul	0	0
total	123	291

Result

Final score

123 – 291

Prediction correct · off by 58.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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