Qualification · Qualification 79

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

230.31 – 400.58

11%89%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

170 – 608

Prediction correct · off by 133.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 365.9 ±16

5125Hawks on the Horizon

Provisional

Season APEX 53.6Event APEX 30.55Rank 43Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

5740Trojanators

Season APEX 153.2Event APEX 157.86Rank 16Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7525Pioneers

Season APEX 159.1Event APEX 41.9Rank 37Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 608.5 ±12.8

2481Roboteers

Season APEX 378Event APEX 303.17Rank 1Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7428Gigawatts

Season APEX 82.8Event APEX -0.13Rank 31Record 4-5-1Status establishedConfidence 97

3959Mech Tech

Season APEX 147.7Event APEX 97.54Rank 23Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5125, 5740, 7525

/ 100 compat

Projected

230.3 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 5125, 5740, 7525

Auto

51.1 24%

Teleop

129.4 60%

Endgame

36.6 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 70%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2481, 7428, 3959

/ 100 compat

Projected

400.6 pts

~2.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 2481, 7428, 3959

Auto

101.3 26%

Teleop

213.2 55%

Endgame

75.8 19%

Strengths

· 2481 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 70%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.95 · Blue 2.59

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score230.3pts

Blue projected score400.6pts

Red win probability11%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 70%, blue 65%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 14%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -170.3
Score range: 194–437
Upset likelihood: 11%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 778 vs event baseline 198.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

365.9Season APEX608.5

51.1Auto101.3

129.4Teleop213.2

36.6Endgame75.8

93Consistency101

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	82
teleop	88	363
endgame	65	163
foul	0	0
total	170	608

Result

Final score

170 – 608

Prediction correct · off by 133.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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