Qualification · Qualification 78

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

135.85 – 285.98

13%87%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

161 – 338

Prediction correct · off by 38.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 375.8 ±15.6

2556RadioActive Roaches

Season APEX 205.3Event APEX 111.18Rank 13Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4306Robokomodos

Provisional

Season APEX 57.6Event APEX 5.27Rank 45Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

9153Bearcat Robotics

Season APEX 112.9Event APEX 19.4Rank 27Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 95

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 517.6 ±11.6

4020Cyber Tribe

Season APEX 249Event APEX 165.87Rank 11Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3201Ross Rambotics

Season APEX 133.9Event APEX 41.4Rank 18Record 6-3-1Status establishedConfidence 97

7111RAD Robotics

Season APEX 134.7Event APEX 78.71Rank 8Record 7-2-1Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2556, 4306, 9153

/ 100 compat

Projected

135.9 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 2556, 4306, 9153

Auto

29.6 23%

Teleop

63.3 48%

Endgame

37.9 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4020, 3201, 7111

/ 100 compat

Projected

286 pts

~2.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 4020, 3201, 7111

Auto

70.6 25%

Teleop

147.4 53%

Endgame

62.0 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.95 · Blue 2.48

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score135.9pts

Blue projected score286pts

Red win probability13%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 64%, blue 70%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -150.1
Score range: 100–322
Upset likelihood: 13%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 499 vs event baseline 197.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

375.8Season APEX517.6

29.6Auto70.6

63.3Teleop147.4

37.9Endgame62

7Consistency50

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	44	67
teleop	78	210
endgame	39	61
foul	0	0
total	161	338

Result

Final score

161 – 338

Prediction correct · off by 38.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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