Qualification · Qualification 77

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

106.88 – 427.38

2%98%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

46 – 250

Prediction correct · off by 119.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 248.2 ±14.5

5002Dragon Robotics

Season APEX 113Event APEX 48.21Rank 22Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 91

5842Royal Robotics

Season APEX 82.5Event APEX 38.32Rank 42Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 94

3984Topper Robotics

Season APEX 52.7Event APEX 20.35Rank 46Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 665.6 ±10.4

2783Engineers of Tomorrow

Season APEX 275.1Event APEX 204.53Rank 2Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2638Rebel Robotics

Season APEX 214.4Event APEX 175.64Rank 6Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9067The Goonies

Season APEX 176.1Event APEX 47.21Rank 25Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5002, 5842, 3984

/ 100 compat

Projected

106.9 pts

~0.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 5002, 5842, 3984

Auto

10.6 11%

Teleop

62.8 65%

Endgame

23.7 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2783, 2638, 9067

/ 100 compat

Projected

427.4 pts

~2.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 2783, 2638, 9067

Auto

71.4 17%

Teleop

255.7 60%

Endgame

99.7 23%

Strengths

· 2783 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.56 · Blue 2.67

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score106.9pts

Blue projected score427.4pts

Red win probability2%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 64%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -320.5
Score range: 71–463
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 296 vs event baseline 198.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

248.2Season APEX665.6

10.6Auto71.4

62.8Teleop255.7

23.7Endgame99.7

1Consistency45

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	53
teleop	15	113
endgame	13	69
foul	0	15
total	46	250

Result

Final score

46 – 250

Prediction correct · off by 119.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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