Qualification · Qualification 76

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

67.91 – 185.82

19%81%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

61 – 262

Prediction correct · off by 41.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 240.1 ±16.6

2973Mad Rockers

Provisional

Season APEX 13Event APEX 4.2Rank 48Record 1-9-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

10961Hyper Wave

Season APEX 72.6Event APEX 25.91Rank 41Record 3-6-1Status establishedConfidence 89

3792Army Ants

Season APEX 154.5Event APEX 37.8Rank 29Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 379.7 ±16.2

6107CyberJagzz

Provisional

Season APEX 41.2Event APEX -14.7Rank 38Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

7917Frontier

Season APEX 62.1Event APEX 26.81Rank 44Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 92

9401Midas' Mayhem

Season APEX 276.4Event APEX 173.71Rank 3Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2973, 10961, 3792

/ 100 compat

Projected

67.9 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 2973, 10961, 3792

Auto

4.8 8%

Teleop

22.7 36%

Endgame

34.8 56%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6107, 7917, 9401

/ 100 compat

Projected

185.8 pts

~2.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 6107, 7917, 9401

Auto

33.7 17%

Teleop

96.4 49%

Endgame

67.1 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.92 · Blue 2.28

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score67.9pts

Blue projected score185.8pts

Red win probability19%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -117.9
Score range: 32–222
Upset likelihood: 19%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 323 vs event baseline 198.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

240.1Season APEX379.7

4.8Auto33.7

22.7Teleop96.4

34.8Endgame67.1

25Consistency57

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	12	34
teleop	25	140
endgame	24	73
foul	0	15
total	61	262

Result

Final score

61 – 262

Prediction correct · off by 41.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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