Qualification · Qualification 75

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

64.96 – 170.6

21%79%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

93 – 222

Prediction correct · off by 39.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 227.8 ±17

8624Sasquatch Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 48.1Event APEX 9.72Rank 47Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

4150FRobotics

Season APEX 77.9Event APEX 29.71Rank 34Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 88

5492Winner's Circle Robo Jockey's

Season APEX 101.8Event APEX 25.53Rank 39Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 94

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 423.2 ±14.1

5045SpartaBot

Season APEX 81.2Event APEX 23.36Rank 28Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 89

7515Dark Side Robotics

Season APEX 106.8Event APEX 46.21Rank 24Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 91

6517So-Kno Robo

Season APEX 235.2Event APEX 101.03Rank 21Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8624, 4150, 5492

/ 100 compat

Projected

65 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 8624, 4150, 5492

Auto

22.8 41%

Teleop

11.0 20%

Endgame

22.4 40%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5045, 7515, 6517

/ 100 compat

Projected

170.6 pts

~2.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 5045, 7515, 6517

Auto

35.3 23%

Teleop

77.0 49%

Endgame

44.4 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.02 · Blue 2.31

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score65pts

Blue projected score170.6pts

Red win probability21%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 67%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -105.6
Score range: 29–207
Upset likelihood: 21%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 315 vs event baseline 199.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

227.8Season APEX423.2

22.8Auto35.3

11Teleop77

22.4Endgame44.4

49Consistency15

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	63
teleop	52	107
endgame	23	37
foul	0	15
total	93	222

Result

Final score

93 – 222

Prediction correct · off by 39.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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