Qualification · Qualification 74

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

177.69 – 189.44

46%54%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

152 – 211

Prediction correct · off by 23.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 435.6 ±13.5

3492Putnam Area Robotics Team (P.A.R.T.s)

Season APEX 185.9Event APEX 78.81Rank 10Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

120Youth Tech Academy Red Dragons

Season APEX 146.3Event APEX 97.56Rank 14Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4265Secret City Wildbots

Season APEX 103.4Event APEX 1.32Rank 19Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 92

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 353.1 ±13.9

4107Team Storm

Season APEX 105.7Event APEX 67.21Rank 20Record 5-4-1Status establishedConfidence 97

1912Team Combustion

Season APEX 202.5Event APEX 96.73Rank 7Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3140Flagship

Season APEX 44.9Event APEX 25.5Rank 35Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 91

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3492, 120, 4265

/ 100 compat

Projected

177.7 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 3492, 120, 4265

Auto

21.8 12%

Teleop

98.5 56%

Endgame

54.5 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4107, 1912, 3140

/ 100 compat

Projected

189.4 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 4107, 1912, 3140

Auto

28.4 15%

Teleop

103.7 56%

Endgame

53.6 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.66 · Blue 1.77

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score177.7pts

Blue projected score189.4pts

Red win probability46%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 67%, blue 65%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -11.7
Score range: 142–225
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 363 vs event baseline 199.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

435.6Season APEX353.1

21.8Auto28.4

98.5Teleop103.7

54.5Endgame53.6

32Consistency67

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	42	17
teleop	84	134
endgame	26	60
foul	0	0
total	152	211

Result

Final score

152 – 211

Prediction correct · off by 23.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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