Qualification · Qualification 73

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

137.59 – 178.16

38%62%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

149 – 171

Prediction correct · off by 9.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 336 ±13.9

538Renaissance Robotics

Season APEX 101.1Event APEX 24.99Rank 32Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 89

744Shark Attack

Season APEX 150.1Event APEX 96.08Rank 12Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1308Wildcat Robotics

Season APEX 84.8Event APEX 16.52Rank 33Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 327.4 ±14.5

4504B. C. Robotics

Season APEX 113.9Event APEX 111.28Rank 5Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1466Webb Robotics

Season APEX 131.9Event APEX 50.65Rank 9Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3260SHARP

Season APEX 81.6Event APEX 16.23Rank 30Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 88

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 538, 744, 1308

/ 100 compat

Projected

137.6 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 538, 744, 1308

Auto

10.1 8%

Teleop

89.0 68%

Endgame

31.4 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4504, 1466, 3260

/ 100 compat

Projected

178.2 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 4504, 1466, 3260

Auto

27.4 16%

Teleop

101.3 59%

Endgame

42.6 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.43 · Blue 1.98

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score137.6pts

Blue projected score178.2pts

Red win probability38%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 65%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -40.6
Score range: 102–214
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 320 vs event baseline 200.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

336Season APEX327.4

10.1Auto27.4

89Teleop101.3

31.4Endgame42.6

4Consistency14

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	34
teleop	82	84
endgame	47	48
foul	0	5
total	149	171

Result

Final score

149 – 171

Prediction correct · off by 9.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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