Qualification · Qualification 72

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

462.54 – 280.71

91%9%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

340 – 343

Prediction missed · off by 92.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 549.9 ±12.8

5740Trojanators

Season APEX 153.2Event APEX 174.63Rank 16Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4020Cyber Tribe

Season APEX 249Event APEX 179.68Rank 11Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3959Mech Tech

Season APEX 147.7Event APEX 108.23Rank 23Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 462.5 ±12.2

3984Topper Robotics

Season APEX 52.7Event APEX 14.41Rank 46Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7111RAD Robotics

Season APEX 134.7Event APEX 71.08Rank 8Record 7-2-1Status establishedConfidence 97

2783Engineers of Tomorrow

Season APEX 275.1Event APEX 195.22Rank 2Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5740, 4020, 3959

/ 100 compat

Projected

462.5 pts

~2.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 5740, 4020, 3959

Auto

88.6 20%

Teleop

247.0 57%

Endgame

100.7 23%

Strengths

· 4020 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 71%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3984, 7111, 2783

/ 100 compat

Projected

280.7 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 3984, 7111, 2783

Auto

48.6 17%

Teleop

140.1 49%

Endgame

96.0 34%

Strengths

· 2783 anchors offense
· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 71%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.59 · Blue 0.81

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score462.5pts

Blue projected score280.7pts

Red win probability91%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 71%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 181.8
Score range: 245–499
Upset likelihood: 9%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

High scoring

Combined score 683 vs event baseline 198.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

549.9Season APEX462.5

88.6Auto48.6

247Teleop140.1

100.7Endgame96

111Consistency65

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	116	53
teleop	180	182
endgame	44	103
foul	0	5
total	340	343

Result

Final score

340 – 343

Prediction missed · off by 92.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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