Qualification · Qualification 71

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

141.38 – 41.43

78%22%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

130 – 64

Prediction correct · off by 17 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 401 ±15.1

3792Army Ants

Season APEX 154.5Event APEX 37.47Rank 29Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6107CyberJagzz

Provisional

Season APEX 41.2Event APEX -13.62Rank 38Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

2556RadioActive Roaches

Season APEX 205.3Event APEX 117.53Rank 13Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 246.8 ±14.5

7428Gigawatts

Season APEX 82.8Event APEX -2.8Rank 31Record 4-5-1Status establishedConfidence 97

5842Royal Robotics

Season APEX 82.5Event APEX 36.72Rank 42Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 94

10137RoboKats

Season APEX 81.5Event APEX 7.51Rank 26Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 92

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3792, 6107, 2556

/ 100 compat

Projected

141.4 pts

~2.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 3792, 6107, 2556

Auto

4.4 3%

Teleop

78.3 58%

Endgame

51.3 38%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7428, 5842, 10137

/ 100 compat

Projected

41.4 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 7428, 5842, 10137

Auto

10.1 29%

Teleop

41.6 100%

Endgame

-16.4 0%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.24 · Blue 1.08

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score141.4pts

Blue projected score41.4pts

Red win probability78%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 64%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 99.9
Score range: 5–177
Upset likelihood: 22%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 194 vs event baseline 199.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

401Season APEX246.8

4.4Auto10.1

78.3Teleop41.6

51.3Endgame-16.4

41Consistency75

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	30	22
teleop	89	16
endgame	11	26
foul	0	0
total	130	64

Result

Final score

130 – 64

Prediction correct · off by 17 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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