Qualification · Qualification 70

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

114.03 – 158.66

36%64%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

80 – 49

Prediction missed · off by 71.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 263.5 ±15.6

5002Dragon Robotics

Season APEX 113Event APEX 53.71Rank 22Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 91

4150FRobotics

Season APEX 77.9Event APEX 32.21Rank 34Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 88

10961Hyper Wave

Season APEX 72.6Event APEX 28.11Rank 41Record 3-6-1Status establishedConfidence 89

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 318 ±18

2393Robotichauns

Season APEX 212.3Event APEX 124.26Rank 17Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8624Sasquatch Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 48.1Event APEX 21.01Rank 47Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

4306Robokomodos

Provisional

Season APEX 57.6Event APEX 13.39Rank 45Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5002, 4150, 10961

/ 100 compat

Projected

114 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 5002, 4150, 10961

Auto

19.8 19%

Teleop

57.3 55%

Endgame

26.4 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2393, 8624, 4306

/ 100 compat

Projected

158.7 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 2393, 8624, 4306

Auto

35.9 23%

Teleop

83.3 54%

Endgame

34.4 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.34 · Blue 1.88

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score114pts

Blue projected score158.7pts

Red win probability36%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -44.6
Score range: 78–195
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 129 vs event baseline 201.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

263.5Season APEX318

19.8Auto35.9

57.3Teleop83.3

26.4Endgame34.4

35Consistency28

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	24
teleop	47	9
endgame	15	11
foul	0	5
total	80	49

Result

Final score

80 – 49

Prediction missed · off by 71.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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