Qualification · Qualification 69

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

410.94 – 313.65

77%23%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

173 – 278

Prediction missed · off by 136.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 615.3 ±12.9

4265Secret City Wildbots

Season APEX 103.4Event APEX 23.95Rank 19Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 92

3201Ross Rambotics

Season APEX 133.9Event APEX 58.85Rank 18Record 6-3-1Status establishedConfidence 97

2481Roboteers

Season APEX 378Event APEX 328.14Rank 1Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 529.5 ±13.5

120Youth Tech Academy Red Dragons

Season APEX 146.3Event APEX 98.68Rank 14Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9401Midas' Mayhem

Season APEX 276.4Event APEX 169.7Rank 3Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7515Dark Side Robotics

Season APEX 106.8Event APEX 45.27Rank 24Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 91

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4265, 3201, 2481

/ 100 compat

Projected

410.9 pts

~2.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 4265, 3201, 2481

Auto

83.8 21%

Teleop

227.5 56%

Endgame

96.2 24%

Strengths

· 2481 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 72%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 120, 9401, 7515

/ 100 compat

Projected

313.7 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 120, 9401, 7515

Auto

47.1 15%

Teleop

183.1 57%

Endgame

91.6 28%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 72%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.33 · Blue 1.14

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score410.9pts

Blue projected score313.7pts

Red win probability77%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 72%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 97.3
Score range: 278–447
Upset likelihood: 23%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 451 vs event baseline 201.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

615.3Season APEX529.5

83.8Auto47.1

227.5Teleop183.1

96.2Endgame91.6

28Consistency16

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	100	64
teleop	58	116
endgame	0	98
foul	15	0
total	173	278

Result

Final score

173 – 278

Prediction missed · off by 136.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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