Qualification · Qualification 68

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

159.97 – 40.09

82%18%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

232 – 48

Prediction correct · off by 40 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 337 ±13.9

5045SpartaBot

Season APEX 81.2Event APEX 16.62Rank 28Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 89

744Shark Attack

Season APEX 150.1Event APEX 88.13Rank 12Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4107Team Storm

Season APEX 105.7Event APEX 55.22Rank 20Record 5-4-1Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 142.7 ±17

2973Mad Rockers

Provisional

Season APEX 13Event APEX 3.23Rank 48Record 1-9-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

1308Wildcat Robotics

Season APEX 84.8Event APEX 11.53Rank 33Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3140Flagship

Season APEX 44.9Event APEX 25.33Rank 35Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 91

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5045, 744, 4107

/ 100 compat

Projected

160 pts

~2.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 5045, 744, 4107

Auto

14.2 9%

Teleop

99.9 63%

Endgame

44.6 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 69%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2973, 1308, 3140

/ 100 compat

Projected

40.1 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 2973, 1308, 3140

Auto

13.8 39%

Teleop

-4.6 0%

Endgame

26.0 74%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 69%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.39 · Blue 0.88

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score160pts

Blue projected score40.1pts

Red win probability82%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 69%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 119.9
Score range: 4–196
Upset likelihood: 18%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 280 vs event baseline 202.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

337Season APEX142.7

14.2Auto13.8

99.9Teleop-4.6

44.6Endgame26

17Consistency85

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	41	19
teleop	135	17
endgame	56	12
foul	0	0
total	232	48

Result

Final score

232 – 48

Prediction correct · off by 40 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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