Qualification · Qualification 67

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

220.99 – 129.04

76%24%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

231 – 225

Prediction correct · off by 53 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 417.5 ±13.9

538Renaissance Robotics

Season APEX 101.1Event APEX 18.43Rank 32Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 89

1912Team Combustion

Season APEX 202.5Event APEX 98.38Rank 7Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4504B. C. Robotics

Season APEX 113.9Event APEX 104.18Rank 5Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 391.2 ±15.6

3966Gryphon Command

Season APEX 235.8Event APEX 91.1Rank 4Record 7-2-1Status establishedConfidence 100

5492Winner's Circle Robo Jockey's

Season APEX 101.8Event APEX 18.17Rank 39Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 94

5125Hawks on the Horizon

Provisional

Season APEX 53.6Event APEX 19.77Rank 43Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 538, 1912, 4504

/ 100 compat

Projected

221 pts

~2.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 538, 1912, 4504

Auto

24.4 12%

Teleop

130.0 66%

Endgame

43.2 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3966, 5492, 5125

/ 100 compat

Projected

129 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 3966, 5492, 5125

Auto

26.4 22%

Teleop

56.4 48%

Endgame

34.7 30%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.25 · Blue 1.15

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score221pts

Blue projected score129pts

Red win probability76%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 67%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 92
Score range: 93–257
Upset likelihood: 24%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 456 vs event baseline 201.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

417.5Season APEX391.2

24.4Auto26.4

130Teleop56.4

43.2Endgame34.7

2Consistency26

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	39
teleop	165	171
endgame	44	15
foul	0	0
total	231	225

Result

Final score

231 – 225

Prediction correct · off by 53 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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