Qualification · Qualification 66

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

201.54 – 205.86

49%51%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

194 – 230

Prediction correct · off by 15.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 413.5 ±16.2

34Rockets

Season APEX 95.2Event APEX 43.88Rank 36Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 91

11037Clarksville Cyber Storm

Provisional

Season APEX 83.1Event APEX 54.16Rank 40Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

6517So-Kno Robo

Season APEX 235.2Event APEX 103.5Rank 21Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 408.9 ±13.5

3260SHARP

Season APEX 81.6Event APEX 14.8Rank 30Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 88

9153Bearcat Robotics

Season APEX 112.9Event APEX 17.26Rank 27Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 95

2638Rebel Robotics

Season APEX 214.4Event APEX 173.8Rank 6Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 34, 11037, 6517

/ 100 compat

Projected

201.5 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 34, 11037, 6517

Auto

30.8 17%

Teleop

105.7 57%

Endgame

49.8 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3260, 9153, 2638

/ 100 compat

Projected

205.9 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 3260, 9153, 2638

Auto

51.3 25%

Teleop

115.9 57%

Endgame

36.9 18%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.74 · Blue 1.68

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score201.5pts

Blue projected score205.9pts

Red win probability49%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 65%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 10%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -4.3
Score range: 166–242
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 424 vs event baseline 201.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

413.5Season APEX408.9

30.8Auto51.3

105.7Teleop115.9

49.8Endgame36.9

0Consistency58

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	50	58
teleop	122	109
endgame	22	58
foul	0	5
total	194	230

Result

Final score

194 – 230

Prediction correct · off by 15.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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