Qualification · Qualification 65

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

146.94 – 164.6

45%55%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

128 – 180

Prediction correct · off by 17.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 364.5 ±14.1

9067The Goonies

Season APEX 176.1Event APEX 49.77Rank 25Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11173STAR FORCE

Season APEX 126.3Event APEX 65.41Rank 15Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 91

7917Frontier

Season APEX 62.1Event APEX 31.76Rank 44Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 92

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 476.9 ±12.2

1466Webb Robotics

Season APEX 131.9Event APEX 44.88Rank 9Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3492Putnam Area Robotics Team (P.A.R.T.s)

Season APEX 185.9Event APEX 74.41Rank 10Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7525Pioneers

Season APEX 159.1Event APEX 45.31Rank 37Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9067, 11173, 7917

/ 100 compat

Projected

146.9 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 9067, 11173, 7917

Auto

27.7 19%

Teleop

82.5 57%

Endgame

35.4 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 69%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1466, 3492, 7525

/ 100 compat

Projected

164.6 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 1466, 3492, 7525

Auto

27.7 17%

Teleop

86.2 53%

Endgame

49.2 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 69%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.65 · Blue 1.89

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score146.9pts

Blue projected score164.6pts

Red win probability45%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 69%, blue 72%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -17.7
Score range: 111–201
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 308 vs event baseline 202.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

364.5Season APEX476.9

27.7Auto27.7

82.5Teleop86.2

35.4Endgame49.2

30Consistency30

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	25	51
teleop	69	93
endgame	34	36
foul	0	0
total	128	180

Result

Final score

128 – 180

Prediction correct · off by 17.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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