Qualification · Qualification 64

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

57.19 – 213.77

12%88%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

50 – 204

Prediction correct · off by 8.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 202.2 ±17.5

10961Hyper Wave

Season APEX 72.6Event APEX 34.93Rank 41Record 3-6-1Status establishedConfidence 89

8624Sasquatch Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 48.1Event APEX 16.36Rank 47Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

10137RoboKats

Season APEX 81.5Event APEX 5.9Rank 26Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 92

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 405.1 ±13.5

4020Cyber Tribe

Season APEX 249Event APEX 177.93Rank 11Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3984Topper Robotics

Season APEX 52.7Event APEX 9.47Rank 46Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4265Secret City Wildbots

Season APEX 103.4Event APEX 26.37Rank 19Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 92

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10961, 8624, 10137

/ 100 compat

Projected

57.2 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 10961, 8624, 10137

Auto

21.0 38%

Teleop

23.4 42%

Endgame

11.3 20%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4020, 3984, 4265

/ 100 compat

Projected

213.8 pts

~2.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 4020, 3984, 4265

Auto

48.7 25%

Teleop

104.1 53%

Endgame

44.2 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.84 · Blue 2.39

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score57.2pts

Blue projected score213.8pts

Red win probability12%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -156.6
Score range: 20–251
Upset likelihood: 12%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 254 vs event baseline 203.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

202.2Season APEX405.1

21Auto48.7

23.4Teleop104.1

11.3Endgame44.2

13Consistency102

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	23
teleop	8	118
endgame	13	63
foul	15	0
total	50	204

Result

Final score

50 – 204

Prediction correct · off by 8.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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