Qualification · Qualification 61

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

292.52 – 206.97

74%26%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

296 – 220

Prediction correct · off by 8.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 492.3 ±12.9

7111RAD Robotics

Season APEX 134.7Event APEX 82.69Rank 8Record 7-2-1Status establishedConfidence 97

9401Midas' Mayhem

Season APEX 276.4Event APEX 179.41Rank 3Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5045SpartaBot

Season APEX 81.2Event APEX 30.42Rank 28Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 89

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 369.1 ±16.2

2638Rebel Robotics

Season APEX 214.4Event APEX 159.04Rank 6Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

538Renaissance Robotics

Season APEX 101.1Event APEX 25.08Rank 32Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 89

5125Hawks on the Horizon

Provisional

Season APEX 53.6Event APEX 22.85Rank 43Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7111, 9401, 5045

/ 100 compat

Projected

292.5 pts

~2.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 7111, 9401, 5045

Auto

63.5 22%

Teleop

162.5 55%

Endgame

66.8 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2638, 538, 5125

/ 100 compat

Projected

207 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 2638, 538, 5125

Auto

36.9 19%

Teleop

128.3 65%

Endgame

31.0 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.2 · Blue 1.21

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score292.5pts

Blue projected score207pts

Red win probability74%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 66%, blue 66%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 85.5
Score range: 171–329
Upset likelihood: 26%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 516 vs event baseline 200.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

492.3Season APEX369.1

63.5Auto36.9

162.5Teleop128.3

66.8Endgame31

46Consistency82

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	52	57
teleop	104	118
endgame	140	40
foul	0	5
total	296	220

Result

Final score

296 – 220

Prediction correct · off by 8.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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