Qualification · Qualification 58

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

110.92 – 292.78

9%91%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

229 – 349

Prediction correct · off by 87.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 399.1 ±13.5

5492Winner's Circle Robo Jockey's

Season APEX 101.8Event APEX 5.1Rank 39Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 94

7917Frontier

Season APEX 62.1Event APEX 17.2Rank 44Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 92

6517So-Kno Robo

Season APEX 235.2Event APEX 88.62Rank 21Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 437.2 ±12.7

3201Ross Rambotics

Season APEX 133.9Event APEX 43.81Rank 18Record 6-3-1Status establishedConfidence 97

744Shark Attack

Season APEX 150.1Event APEX 78.06Rank 12Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5740Trojanators

Season APEX 153.2Event APEX 170.91Rank 16Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5492, 7917, 6517

/ 100 compat

Projected

110.9 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 5492, 7917, 6517

Auto

19.3 20%

Teleop

24.1 25%

Endgame

51.8 54%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3201, 744, 5740

/ 100 compat

Projected

292.8 pts

~2.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 3201, 744, 5740

Auto

51.7 18%

Teleop

152.7 54%

Endgame

76.4 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.89 · Blue 2.57

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score110.9pts

Blue projected score292.8pts

Red win probability9%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 65%, blue 70%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -181.9
Score range: 74–330
Upset likelihood: 9%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 578 vs event baseline 204.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

399.1Season APEX437.2

19.3Auto51.7

24.1Teleop152.7

51.8Endgame76.4

6Consistency44

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	35	43
teleop	98	231
endgame	91	75
foul	5	0
total	229	349

Result

Final score

229 – 349

Prediction correct · off by 87.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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