Qualification · Qualification 57

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

206.8 – 156.46

65%35%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

310 – 245

Prediction correct · off by 95.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 570.2 ±12.2

1912Team Combustion

Season APEX 202.5Event APEX 86.84Rank 7Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1466Webb Robotics

Season APEX 131.9Event APEX 32.98Rank 9Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3966Gryphon Command

Season APEX 235.8Event APEX 86.98Rank 4Record 7-2-1Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 287 ±17

3959Mech Tech

Season APEX 147.7Event APEX 101.42Rank 23Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2973Mad Rockers

Provisional

Season APEX 13Event APEX -6Rank 48Record 1-9-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

11173STAR FORCE

Season APEX 126.3Event APEX 61.04Rank 15Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 91

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1912, 1466, 3966

/ 100 compat

Projected

206.8 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 1912, 1466, 3966

Auto

29.5 14%

Teleop

126.4 62%

Endgame

47.7 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3959, 2973, 11173

/ 100 compat

Projected

156.5 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 3959, 2973, 11173

Auto

36.2 26%

Teleop

62.3 45%

Endgame

41.0 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2 · Blue 1.42

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score206.8pts

Blue projected score156.5pts

Red win probability65%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 64%, blue 65%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 50.3
Score range: 119–244
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 555 vs event baseline 203.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

570.2Season APEX287

29.5Auto36.2

126.4Teleop62.3

47.7Endgame41

0Consistency100

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	43	29
teleop	182	138
endgame	85	73
foul	0	5
total	310	245

Result

Final score

310 – 245

Prediction correct · off by 95.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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