Qualification · Qualification 52

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

207.38 – 261.25

34%66%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

128 – 348

Prediction correct · off by 83.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 472.8 ±12.8

6517So-Kno Robo

Season APEX 235.2Event APEX 100.07Rank 21Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1466Webb Robotics

Season APEX 131.9Event APEX 43.56Rank 9Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4107Team Storm

Season APEX 105.7Event APEX 63.75Rank 20Record 5-4-1Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 561.4 ±12.2

5842Royal Robotics

Season APEX 82.5Event APEX 28.07Rank 42Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 94

9401Midas' Mayhem

Season APEX 276.4Event APEX 156.46Rank 3Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1912Team Combustion

Season APEX 202.5Event APEX 76.72Rank 7Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6517, 1466, 4107

/ 100 compat

Projected

207.4 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 6517, 1466, 4107

Auto

32.4 16%

Teleop

115.1 58%

Endgame

50.2 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 70%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5842, 9401, 1912

/ 100 compat

Projected

261.3 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 5842, 9401, 1912

Auto

37.5 14%

Teleop

158.4 61%

Endgame

65.0 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 70%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.48 · Blue 2

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score207.4pts

Blue projected score261.3pts

Red win probability34%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 70%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 9%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -53.9
Score range: 169–299
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 476 vs event baseline 208.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

472.8Season APEX561.4

32.4Auto37.5

115.1Teleop158.4

50.2Endgame65

0Consistency59

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	51
teleop	30	232
endgame	79	65
foul	0	0
total	128	348

Result

Final score

128 – 348

Prediction correct · off by 83.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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