Qualification · Qualification 50

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

214.31 – 323.36

20%80%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

274 – 328

Prediction correct · off by 32.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 434.4 ±12.9

3201Ross Rambotics

Season APEX 133.9Event APEX 47.53Rank 18Record 6-3-1Status establishedConfidence 97

34Rockets

Season APEX 95.2Event APEX 36.1Rank 36Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 91

2556RadioActive Roaches

Season APEX 205.3Event APEX 130.68Rank 13Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 577.3 ±12.2

2783Engineers of Tomorrow

Season APEX 275.1Event APEX 176.6Rank 2Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3959Mech Tech

Season APEX 147.7Event APEX 97.89Rank 23Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3792Army Ants

Season APEX 154.5Event APEX 48.87Rank 29Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3201, 34, 2556

/ 100 compat

Projected

214.3 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 3201, 34, 2556

Auto

31.7 15%

Teleop

109.5 52%

Endgame

69.6 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 71%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2783, 3959, 3792

/ 100 compat

Projected

323.4 pts

~2.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 2783, 3959, 3792

Auto

46.9 15%

Teleop

184.7 59%

Endgame

82.7 26%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 71%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.19 · Blue 2.35

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score214.3pts

Blue projected score323.4pts

Red win probability20%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 71%, blue 69%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -109
Score range: 177–360
Upset likelihood: 20%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 602 vs event baseline 205.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

434.4Season APEX577.3

31.7Auto46.9

109.5Teleop184.7

69.6Endgame82.7

19Consistency125

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	42	52
teleop	138	167
endgame	89	104
foul	5	5
total	274	328

Result

Final score

274 – 328

Prediction correct · off by 32.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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