Qualification · Qualification 5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

89.36 – 168.78

27%73%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

53 – 121

Prediction correct · off by 42.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 223.2 ±17.5

7917Frontier

Season APEX 62.1Event APEX 33.83Rank 44Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 92

5002Dragon Robotics

Season APEX 113Event APEX 44.61Rank 22Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 91

8624Sasquatch Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 48.1Event APEX 10.92Rank 47Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 380.5 ±13.9

7428Gigawatts

Season APEX 82.8Event APEX 19.27Rank 31Record 4-5-1Status establishedConfidence 97

34Rockets

Season APEX 95.2Event APEX 49.89Rank 36Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 91

1912Team Combustion

Season APEX 202.5Event APEX 99.62Rank 7Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7917, 5002, 8624

/ 100 compat

Projected

89.4 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 7917, 5002, 8624

Auto

18.2 22%

Teleop

44.0 52%

Endgame

22.3 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7428, 34, 1912

/ 100 compat

Projected

168.8 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 7428, 34, 1912

Auto

16.5 10%

Teleop

101.6 60%

Endgame

51.0 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.13 · Blue 2.15

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score89.4pts

Blue projected score168.8pts

Red win probability27%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -79.4
Score range: 50–208
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 174 vs event baseline 218.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

223.2Season APEX380.5

18.2Auto16.5

44Teleop101.6

22.3Endgame51

38Consistency40

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	17
teleop	24	65
endgame	15	39
foul	0	0
total	53	121

Result

Final score

53 – 121

Prediction correct · off by 42.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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