Qualification · Qualification 49

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

234.79 – 234.49

50%50%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

250 – 345

Prediction missed · off by 62.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 478.7 ±14.7

4020Cyber Tribe

Season APEX 249Event APEX 172.65Rank 11Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5125Hawks on the Horizon

Provisional

Season APEX 53.6Event APEX 12.67Rank 43Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

9067The Goonies

Season APEX 176.1Event APEX 49.47Rank 25Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 451.1 ±13.5

5740Trojanators

Season APEX 153.2Event APEX 154.87Rank 16Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7917Frontier

Season APEX 62.1Event APEX 4Rank 44Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 92

3966Gryphon Command

Season APEX 235.8Event APEX 75.62Rank 4Record 7-2-1Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4020, 5125, 9067

/ 100 compat

Projected

234.8 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 4020, 5125, 9067

Auto

54.6 26%

Teleop

132.9 64%

Endgame

20.3 10%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5740, 7917, 3966

/ 100 compat

Projected

234.5 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 5740, 7917, 3966

Auto

53.8 23%

Teleop

132.3 58%

Endgame

43.3 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.73 · Blue 1.66

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score234.8pts

Blue projected score234.5pts

Red win probability50%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 66%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 0.3
Score range: 197–272
Upset likelihood: 50%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 595 vs event baseline 203.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

478.7Season APEX451.1

54.6Auto53.8

132.9Teleop132.3

20.3Endgame43.3

76Consistency98

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	57	55
teleop	136	174
endgame	52	111
foul	5	5
total	250	345

Result

Final score

250 – 345

Prediction missed · off by 62.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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