Qualification · Qualification 48

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

90.02 – 86.08

51%49%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

101 – 145

Prediction missed · off by 35 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 271.2 ±15

7515Dark Side Robotics

Season APEX 106.8Event APEX 47.66Rank 24Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 91

3260SHARP

Season APEX 81.6Event APEX 21.57Rank 30Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 88

7428Gigawatts

Season APEX 82.8Event APEX 20.79Rank 31Record 4-5-1Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 280.7 ±14.5

538Renaissance Robotics

Season APEX 101.1Event APEX 17.32Rank 32Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 89

7111RAD Robotics

Season APEX 134.7Event APEX 56.71Rank 8Record 7-2-1Status establishedConfidence 97

3140Flagship

Season APEX 44.9Event APEX 12.05Rank 35Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 91

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7515, 3260, 7428

/ 100 compat

Projected

90 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 7515, 3260, 7428

Auto

24.0 26%

Teleop

54.0 58%

Endgame

14.5 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 538, 7111, 3140

/ 100 compat

Projected

86.1 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 538, 7111, 3140

Auto

21.7 28%

Teleop

36.8 48%

Endgame

18.5 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.68 · Blue 1.68

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score90pts

Blue projected score86.1pts

Red win probability51%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 67%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 3.9
Score range: 49–127
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 246 vs event baseline 205.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

271.2Season APEX280.7

24Auto21.7

54Teleop36.8

14.5Endgame18.5

93Consistency132

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	31	39
teleop	53	77
endgame	12	29
foul	5	0
total	101	145

Result

Final score

101 – 145

Prediction missed · off by 35 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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