Qualification · Qualification 47

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

243.28 – 131.27

80%20%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

154 – 317

Prediction missed · off by 137.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 355.5 ±13.3

7525Pioneers

Season APEX 159.1Event APEX 64.39Rank 37Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4504B. C. Robotics

Season APEX 113.9Event APEX 137.11Rank 5Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5842Royal Robotics

Season APEX 82.5Event APEX 41.78Rank 42Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 94

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 427.9 ±16.2

4265Secret City Wildbots

Season APEX 103.4Event APEX -3.26Rank 19Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 92

8624Sasquatch Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 48.1Event APEX -0.64Rank 47Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

9401Midas' Mayhem

Season APEX 276.4Event APEX 135.17Rank 3Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7525, 4504, 5842

/ 100 compat

Projected

243.3 pts

~2.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 7525, 4504, 5842

Auto

12.6 6%

Teleop

160.6 78%

Endgame

33.2 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4265, 8624, 9401

/ 100 compat

Projected

131.3 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 4265, 8624, 9401

Auto

53.0 36%

Teleop

55.7 38%

Endgame

38.6 26%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.31 · Blue 1.09

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score243.3pts

Blue projected score131.3pts

Red win probability80%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 65%, blue 63%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 112
Score range: 94–280
Upset likelihood: 20%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 471 vs event baseline 204.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

355.5Season APEX427.9

12.6Auto53

160.6Teleop55.7

33.2Endgame38.6

49Consistency85

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	36	45
teleop	84	183
endgame	34	89
foul	0	0
total	154	317

Result

Final score

154 – 317

Prediction missed · off by 137.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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