Qualification · Qualification 45

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

203.55 – 82.31

82%18%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

121 – 59

Prediction correct · off by 52.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 392.1 ±13.9

3201Ross Rambotics

Season APEX 133.9Event APEX 64.95Rank 18Record 6-3-1Status establishedConfidence 97

11173STAR FORCE

Season APEX 126.3Event APEX 74.3Rank 15Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 91

1466Webb Robotics

Season APEX 131.9Event APEX 64.3Rank 9Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 235.4 ±17.5

6107CyberJagzz

Provisional

Season APEX 41.2Event APEX 1.01Rank 38Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

5045SpartaBot

Season APEX 81.2Event APEX 25.04Rank 28Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 89

5002Dragon Robotics

Season APEX 113Event APEX 56.26Rank 22Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 91

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3201, 11173, 1466

/ 100 compat

Projected

203.6 pts

~2.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 3201, 11173, 1466

Auto

32.1 16%

Teleop

101.0 52%

Endgame

62.8 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 74%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6107, 5045, 5002

/ 100 compat

Projected

82.3 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 6107, 5045, 5002

Auto

-4.2 0%

Teleop

50.3 68%

Endgame

27.5 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 74%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.45 · Blue 0.98

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score203.6pts

Blue projected score82.3pts

Red win probability82%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 74%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 121.2
Score range: 45–241
Upset likelihood: 18%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 180 vs event baseline 206.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

392.1Season APEX235.4

32.1Auto-4.2

101Teleop50.3

62.8Endgame27.5

62Consistency45

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	26	17
teleop	64	25
endgame	31	17
foul	0	0
total	121	59

Result

Final score

121 – 59

Prediction correct · off by 52.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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