Qualification · Qualification 41

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

245.32 – 286.69

37%63%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

330 – 290

Prediction missed · off by 44 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 519 ±11.6

744Shark Attack

Season APEX 150.1Event APEX 68.15Rank 12Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3792Army Ants

Season APEX 154.5Event APEX 33.56Rank 29Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2638Rebel Robotics

Season APEX 214.4Event APEX 143.61Rank 6Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 509.1 ±15.1

1912Team Combustion

Season APEX 202.5Event APEX 80.35Rank 7Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4020Cyber Tribe

Season APEX 249Event APEX 179.96Rank 11Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4306Robokomodos

Provisional

Season APEX 57.6Event APEX 26.38Rank 45Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 744, 3792, 2638

/ 100 compat

Projected

245.3 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 744, 3792, 2638

Auto

40.1 17%

Teleop

168.2 71%

Endgame

27.8 12%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1912, 4020, 4306

/ 100 compat

Projected

286.7 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 1912, 4020, 4306

Auto

48.8 19%

Teleop

160.0 61%

Endgame

53.4 20%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.47 · Blue 1.93

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score245.3pts

Blue projected score286.7pts

Red win probability37%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 67%, blue 63%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -41.4
Score range: 209–323
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 620 vs event baseline 202.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

519Season APEX509.1

40.1Auto48.8

168.2Teleop160

27.8Endgame53.4

61Consistency36

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	51
teleop	230	170
endgame	80	64
foul	0	5
total	330	290

Result

Final score

330 – 290

Prediction missed · off by 44 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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