Qualification · Qualification 40

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

35.28 – 247.36

7%93%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

99 – 165

Prediction correct · off by 73 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 227.7 ±16.5

7428Gigawatts

Season APEX 82.8Event APEX 15.59Rank 31Record 4-5-1Status establishedConfidence 97

2973Mad Rockers

Provisional

Season APEX 13Event APEX -36.07Rank 48Record 1-9-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

1466Webb Robotics

Season APEX 131.9Event APEX 55.76Rank 9Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 324.1 ±15

4504B. C. Robotics

Season APEX 113.9Event APEX 172.16Rank 5Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7515Dark Side Robotics

Season APEX 106.8Event APEX 65.12Rank 24Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 91

4265Secret City Wildbots

Season APEX 103.4Event APEX 10.08Rank 19Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 92

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7428, 2973, 1466

/ 100 compat

Projected

35.3 pts

~0.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 7428, 2973, 1466

Auto

21.5 77%

Teleop

-9.5 0%

Endgame

16.0 57%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4504, 7515, 4265

/ 100 compat

Projected

247.4 pts

~2.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 4504, 7515, 4265

Auto

39.8 18%

Teleop

150.7 69%

Endgame

28.9 13%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.72 · Blue 2.65

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score35.3pts

Blue projected score247.4pts

Red win probability7%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 72%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -212.1
Score range: -2–284
Upset likelihood: 7%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 264 vs event baseline 204.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

227.7Season APEX324.1

21.5Auto39.8

-9.5Teleop150.7

16Endgame28.9

162Consistency34

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	16
teleop	63	85
endgame	16	64
foul	0	0
total	99	165

Result

Final score

99 – 165

Prediction correct · off by 73 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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