Qualification · Qualification 4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

143.24 – 210.96

30%70%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

101 – 234

Prediction correct · off by 32.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 267.6 ±14.5

3140Flagship

Season APEX 44.9Event APEX 25.67Rank 35Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 91

744Shark Attack

Season APEX 150.1Event APEX 91.98Rank 12Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10961Hyper Wave

Season APEX 72.6Event APEX 25.59Rank 41Record 3-6-1Status establishedConfidence 89

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 315.9 ±14.5

1308Wildcat Robotics

Season APEX 84.8Event APEX 29.18Rank 33Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4150FRobotics

Season APEX 77.9Event APEX 34.33Rank 34Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 88

5740Trojanators

Season APEX 153.2Event APEX 147.45Rank 16Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3140, 744, 10961

/ 100 compat

Projected

143.2 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 3140, 744, 10961

Auto

18.6 14%

Teleop

78.2 58%

Endgame

39.1 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1308, 4150, 5740

/ 100 compat

Projected

211 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 1308, 4150, 5740

Auto

43.0 21%

Teleop

103.3 50%

Endgame

58.8 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.29 · Blue 2

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score143.2pts

Blue projected score211pts

Red win probability30%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 64%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -67.7
Score range: 104–250
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 335 vs event baseline 218.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

267.6Season APEX315.9

18.6Auto43

78.2Teleop103.3

39.1Endgame58.8

85Consistency85

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	50
teleop	53	139
endgame	28	45
foul	0	0
total	101	234

Result

Final score

101 – 234

Prediction correct · off by 32.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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