Qualification · Qualification 39

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

259.89 – 133.37

83%17%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

299 – 160

Prediction correct · off by 32.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 486.3 ±12.2

120Youth Tech Academy Red Dragons

Season APEX 146.3Event APEX 76.59Rank 14Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2556RadioActive Roaches

Season APEX 205.3Event APEX 129.93Rank 13Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7111RAD Robotics

Season APEX 134.7Event APEX 53.37Rank 8Record 7-2-1Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 409.6 ±16.2

11173STAR FORCE

Season APEX 126.3Event APEX 76.41Rank 15Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 91

6517So-Kno Robo

Season APEX 235.2Event APEX 59.38Rank 21Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8624Sasquatch Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 48.1Event APEX -2.42Rank 47Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 120, 2556, 7111

/ 100 compat

Projected

259.9 pts

~2.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 120, 2556, 7111

Auto

29.7 12%

Teleop

156.8 61%

Endgame

70.4 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11173, 6517, 8624

/ 100 compat

Projected

133.4 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 11173, 6517, 8624

Auto

15.6 16%

Teleop

47.7 48%

Endgame

36.9 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.38 · Blue 1.1

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score259.9pts

Blue projected score133.4pts

Red win probability83%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 66%, blue 67%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 126.5
Score range: 96–297
Upset likelihood: 17%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 459 vs event baseline 203.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

486.3Season APEX409.6

29.7Auto15.6

156.8Teleop47.7

70.4Endgame36.9

94Consistency98

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	44	51
teleop	156	78
endgame	99	31
foul	0	0
total	299	160

Result

Final score

299 – 160

Prediction correct · off by 32.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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