Qualification · Qualification 38

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

137.52 – 85.9

66%34%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

158 – 67

Prediction correct · off by 19.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 430.4 ±14.1

3966Gryphon Command

Season APEX 235.8Event APEX 40.49Rank 4Record 7-2-1Status establishedConfidence 100

5002Dragon Robotics

Season APEX 113Event APEX 65.54Rank 22Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 91

3260SHARP

Season APEX 81.6Event APEX 31.49Rank 30Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 88

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 256.9 ±14.5

10961Hyper Wave

Season APEX 72.6Event APEX 54.66Rank 41Record 3-6-1Status establishedConfidence 89

5842Royal Robotics

Season APEX 82.5Event APEX 38.29Rank 42Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 94

5492Winner's Circle Robo Jockey's

Season APEX 101.8Event APEX -7.05Rank 39Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 94

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3966, 5002, 3260

/ 100 compat

Projected

137.5 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 3966, 5002, 3260

Auto

26.1 19%

Teleop

103.7 76%

Endgame

6.0 4%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10961, 5842, 5492

/ 100 compat

Projected

85.9 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 10961, 5842, 5492

Auto

15.1 22%

Teleop

29.1 42%

Endgame

24.3 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.95 · Blue 1.29

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score137.5pts

Blue projected score85.9pts

Red win probability66%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 51.6
Score range: 49–175
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 225 vs event baseline 206.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

430.4Season APEX256.9

26.1Auto15.1

103.7Teleop29.1

6Endgame24.3

16Consistency46

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	31	10
teleop	98	15
endgame	29	42
foul	0	0
total	158	67

Result

Final score

158 – 67

Prediction correct · off by 19.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree