Qualification · Qualification 36

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

85.09 – 218.58

16%84%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

105 – 267

Prediction correct · off by 34.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 297.3 ±18.4

1912Team Combustion

Season APEX 202.5Event APEX 75.43Rank 7Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6107CyberJagzz

Provisional

Season APEX 41.2Event APEX 2.38Rank 38Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

5125Hawks on the Horizon

Provisional

Season APEX 53.6Event APEX 7.28Rank 43Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 439.8 ±13.5

9153Bearcat Robotics

Season APEX 112.9Event APEX 31.07Rank 27Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 95

4020Cyber Tribe

Season APEX 249Event APEX 161.04Rank 11Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4150FRobotics

Season APEX 77.9Event APEX 26.47Rank 34Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 88

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1912, 6107, 5125

/ 100 compat

Projected

85.1 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 1912, 6107, 5125

Auto

-0.3 0%

Teleop

32.9 53%

Endgame

29.5 48%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9153, 4020, 4150

/ 100 compat

Projected

218.6 pts

~2.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 9153, 4020, 4150

Auto

53.8 27%

Teleop

99.3 51%

Endgame

43.3 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.98 · Blue 2.37

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score85.1pts

Blue projected score218.6pts

Red win probability16%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 64%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -133.5
Score range: 49–255
Upset likelihood: 16%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 372 vs event baseline 201.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

297.3Season APEX439.8

-0.3Auto53.8

32.9Teleop99.3

29.5Endgame43.3

37Consistency88

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	2	58
teleop	62	133
endgame	41	76
foul	0	0
total	105	267

Result

Final score

105 – 267

Prediction correct · off by 34.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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