Qualification · Qualification 34

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

213.43 – 332.23

19%81%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

251 – 348

Prediction correct · off by 26.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 408.8 ±13.9

3792Army Ants

Season APEX 154.5Event APEX 31.95Rank 29Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

538Renaissance Robotics

Season APEX 101.1Event APEX 34.92Rank 32Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 89

5740Trojanators

Season APEX 153.2Event APEX 146.56Rank 16Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 560.6 ±11

2393Robotichauns

Season APEX 212.3Event APEX 120.97Rank 17Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2638Rebel Robotics

Season APEX 214.4Event APEX 141.03Rank 6Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3201Ross Rambotics

Season APEX 133.9Event APEX 70.23Rank 18Record 6-3-1Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3792, 538, 5740

/ 100 compat

Projected

213.4 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 3792, 538, 5740

Auto

49.1 23%

Teleop

130.7 61%

Endgame

33.8 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2393, 2638, 3201

/ 100 compat

Projected

332.2 pts

~2.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 2393, 2638, 3201

Auto

49.2 15%

Teleop

202.9 62%

Endgame

76.0 23%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.06 · Blue 2.34

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score213.4pts

Blue projected score332.2pts

Red win probability19%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 65%, blue 66%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -118.8
Score range: 177–368
Upset likelihood: 19%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 599 vs event baseline 198.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

408.8Season APEX560.6

49.1Auto49.2

130.7Teleop202.9

33.8Endgame76

56Consistency116

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	85
teleop	120	180
endgame	67	83
foul	40	0
total	251	348

Result

Final score

251 – 348

Prediction correct · off by 26.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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