Qualification · Qualification 33

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

73.71 – 105.52

40%60%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

83 – 98

Prediction correct · off by 8.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 273.9 ±13.9

7525Pioneers

Season APEX 159.1Event APEX 53.36Rank 37Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3984Topper Robotics

Season APEX 52.7Event APEX 26.71Rank 46Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7917Frontier

Season APEX 62.1Event APEX -6.36Rank 44Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 92

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 209.2 ±17.5

3140Flagship

Season APEX 44.9Event APEX 5.92Rank 35Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 91

11037Clarksville Cyber Storm

Provisional

Season APEX 83.1Event APEX 59.73Rank 40Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

5045SpartaBot

Season APEX 81.2Event APEX 39.87Rank 28Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 89

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7525, 3984, 7917

/ 100 compat

Projected

73.7 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 7525, 3984, 7917

Auto

22.9 34%

Teleop

39.6 60%

Endgame

3.9 6%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3140, 11037, 5045

/ 100 compat

Projected

105.5 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 3140, 11037, 5045

Auto

31.5 29%

Teleop

51.5 47%

Endgame

26.0 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.39 · Blue 1.83

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score73.7pts

Blue projected score105.5pts

Red win probability40%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -31.8
Score range: 38–142
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 181 vs event baseline 201.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

273.9Season APEX209.2

22.9Auto31.5

39.6Teleop51.5

3.9Endgame26

101Consistency103

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	22
teleop	30	55
endgame	39	6
foul	0	15
total	83	98

Result

Final score

83 – 98

Prediction correct · off by 8.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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