Qualification · Qualification 32

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

135.88 – 103.47

60%40%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

165 – 212

Prediction missed · off by 68.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 486.9 ±13.5

3959Mech Tech

Season APEX 147.7Event APEX 92.98Rank 23Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3966Gryphon Command

Season APEX 235.8Event APEX 33.25Rank 4Record 7-2-1Status establishedConfidence 100

4265Secret City Wildbots

Season APEX 103.4Event APEX 9.65Rank 19Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 92

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 433 ±13.5

1308Wildcat Robotics

Season APEX 84.8Event APEX 16.49Rank 33Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6517So-Kno Robo

Season APEX 235.2Event APEX 42.19Rank 21Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5002Dragon Robotics

Season APEX 113Event APEX 44.79Rank 22Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 91

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3959, 3966, 4265

/ 100 compat

Projected

135.9 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 3959, 3966, 4265

Auto

27.1 22%

Teleop

81.2 66%

Endgame

14.8 12%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 72%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1308, 6517, 5002

/ 100 compat

Projected

103.5 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 1308, 6517, 5002

Auto

7.3 9%

Teleop

52.3 67%

Endgame

18.1 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 72%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.98 · Blue 1.46

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score135.9pts

Blue projected score103.5pts

Red win probability60%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 72%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 9%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 32.4
Score range: 67–172
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 377 vs event baseline 201.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

486.9Season APEX433

27.1Auto7.3

81.2Teleop52.3

14.8Endgame18.1

90Consistency34

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	55	19
teleop	80	119
endgame	15	39
foul	15	35
total	165	212

Result

Final score

165 – 212

Prediction missed · off by 68.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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