Qualification · Qualification 31

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

316.83 – 197.39

82%18%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

318 – 96

Prediction correct · off by 51.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 627.2 ±11.7

9401Midas' Mayhem

Season APEX 276.4Event APEX 147.15Rank 3Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5492Winner's Circle Robo Jockey's

Season APEX 101.8Event APEX 2.34Rank 39Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 94

4020Cyber Tribe

Season APEX 249Event APEX 167.34Rank 11Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 307 ±14.5

4150FRobotics

Season APEX 77.9Event APEX 53.67Rank 34Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 88

7428Gigawatts

Season APEX 82.8Event APEX 37.28Rank 31Record 4-5-1Status establishedConfidence 97

120Youth Tech Academy Red Dragons

Season APEX 146.3Event APEX 106.44Rank 14Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9401, 5492, 4020

/ 100 compat

Projected

316.8 pts

~2.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 9401, 5492, 4020

Auto

57.8 19%

Teleop

182.8 60%

Endgame

65.0 21%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4150, 7428, 120

/ 100 compat

Projected

197.4 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 4150, 7428, 120

Auto

21.5 12%

Teleop

100.8 55%

Endgame

62.1 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.36 · Blue 0.98

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score316.8pts

Blue projected score197.4pts

Red win probability82%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 65%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 119.4
Score range: 161–353
Upset likelihood: 18%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 414 vs event baseline 201.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

627.2Season APEX307

57.8Auto21.5

182.8Teleop100.8

65Endgame62.1

80Consistency124

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	90	22
teleop	151	50
endgame	77	24
foul	0	0
total	318	96

Result

Final score

318 – 96

Prediction correct · off by 51.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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