Qualification · Qualification 30

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

286.47 – 259.43

58%42%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

377 – 143

Prediction correct · off by 103.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 554.7 ±14.1

34Rockets

Season APEX 95.2Event APEX 9.33Rank 36Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 91

2481Roboteers

Season APEX 378Event APEX 254.84Rank 1Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10137RoboKats

Season APEX 81.5Event APEX 22.3Rank 26Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 92

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 487.3 ±12.1

744Shark Attack

Season APEX 150.1Event APEX 68.46Rank 12Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7111RAD Robotics

Season APEX 134.7Event APEX 87.32Rank 8Record 7-2-1Status establishedConfidence 97

1912Team Combustion

Season APEX 202.5Event APEX 103.65Rank 7Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 34, 2481, 10137

/ 100 compat

Projected

286.5 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 34, 2481, 10137

Auto

60.7 20%

Teleop

180.8 60%

Endgame

59.3 20%

Strengths

· 2481 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 744, 7111, 1912

/ 100 compat

Projected

259.4 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 744, 7111, 1912

Auto

33.4 14%

Teleop

164.9 68%

Endgame

43.9 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.99 · Blue 1.6

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score286.5pts

Blue projected score259.4pts

Red win probability58%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 65%, blue 72%

Supercharged bonusred 15%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 27
Score range: 223–322
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 520 vs event baseline 199.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

554.7Season APEX487.3

60.7Auto33.4

180.8Teleop164.9

59.3Endgame43.9

140Consistency83

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	80	22
teleop	227	69
endgame	65	37
foul	5	15
total	377	143

Result

Final score

377 – 143

Prediction correct · off by 103.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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