Qualification · Qualification 3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

143.79 – 90.22

66%34%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

124 – 51

Prediction correct · off by 29.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 335.4 ±15

11173STAR FORCE

Season APEX 126.3Event APEX 73.8Rank 15Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 91

4265Secret City Wildbots

Season APEX 103.4Event APEX 4.55Rank 19Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 92

4107Team Storm

Season APEX 105.7Event APEX 65.44Rank 20Record 5-4-1Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 321 ±16

5125Hawks on the Horizon

Provisional

Season APEX 53.6Event APEX 20.53Rank 43Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

3792Army Ants

Season APEX 154.5Event APEX 41.25Rank 29Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9153Bearcat Robotics

Season APEX 112.9Event APEX 28.44Rank 27Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 95

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11173, 4265, 4107

/ 100 compat

Projected

143.8 pts

~2.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 11173, 4265, 4107

Auto

27.0 19%

Teleop

72.7 51%

Endgame

41.7 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 79%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5125, 3792, 9153

/ 100 compat

Projected

90.2 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 5125, 3792, 9153

Auto

16.7 21%

Teleop

44.9 57%

Endgame

17.8 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 79%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.19 · Blue 1.35

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score143.8pts

Blue projected score90.2pts

Red win probability66%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 79%, blue 63%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 53.6
Score range: 51–183
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 175 vs event baseline 218.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

335.4Season APEX321

27Auto16.7

72.7Teleop44.9

41.7Endgame17.8

69Consistency43

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	10
teleop	68	15
endgame	39	11
foul	0	15
total	124	51

Result

Final score

124 – 51

Prediction correct · off by 29.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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