Qualification · Qualification 29

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

83.42 – 218.7

16%84%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

207 – 108

Prediction missed · off by 117.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 464.5 ±11.6

3792Army Ants

Season APEX 154.5Event APEX -6.14Rank 29Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9067The Goonies

Season APEX 176.1Event APEX 54.3Rank 25Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3201Ross Rambotics

Season APEX 133.9Event APEX 35.26Rank 18Record 6-3-1Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 175 ±18.8

8624Sasquatch Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 48.1Event APEX 28.11Rank 47Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

4504B. C. Robotics

Season APEX 113.9Event APEX 199.62Rank 5Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2973Mad Rockers

Provisional

Season APEX 13Event APEX -9.03Rank 48Record 1-9-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3792, 9067, 3201

/ 100 compat

Projected

83.4 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 3792, 9067, 3201

Auto

13.7 13%

Teleop

75.7 74%

Endgame

12.5 12%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8624, 4504, 2973

/ 100 compat

Projected

218.7 pts

~2.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 8624, 4504, 2973

Auto

29.8 17%

Teleop

109.6 61%

Endgame

38.9 22%

Strengths

· 4504 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.99 · Blue 2.24

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score83.4pts

Blue projected score218.7pts

Red win probability16%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 63%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -135.3
Score range: 47–255
Upset likelihood: 16%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 315 vs event baseline 201.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

464.5Season APEX175

13.7Auto29.8

75.7Teleop109.6

12.5Endgame38.9

26Consistency108

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	43	27
teleop	120	44
endgame	44	37
foul	0	0
total	207	108

Result

Final score

207 – 108

Prediction missed · off by 117.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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