Qualification · Qualification 28

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

152.02 – 302.55

13%87%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

286 – 310

Prediction correct · off by 70.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 454.7 ±12.9

2638Rebel Robotics

Season APEX 214.4Event APEX 103.23Rank 6Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5045SpartaBot

Season APEX 81.2Event APEX 11.58Rank 28Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 89

7525Pioneers

Season APEX 159.1Event APEX 37.21Rank 37Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 463.8 ±12.4

10961Hyper Wave

Season APEX 72.6Event APEX 66.66Rank 41Record 3-6-1Status establishedConfidence 89

2556RadioActive Roaches

Season APEX 205.3Event APEX 133.8Rank 13Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3492Putnam Area Robotics Team (P.A.R.T.s)

Season APEX 185.9Event APEX 102.09Rank 10Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2638, 5045, 7525

/ 100 compat

Projected

152 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 2638, 5045, 7525

Auto

30.1 19%

Teleop

106.5 66%

Endgame

24.3 15%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10961, 2556, 3492

/ 100 compat

Projected

302.6 pts

~2.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 10961, 2556, 3492

Auto

43.2 14%

Teleop

182.5 59%

Endgame

84.3 27%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.97 · Blue 2.47

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score152pts

Blue projected score302.6pts

Red win probability13%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 66%, blue 67%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -150.5
Score range: 116–339
Upset likelihood: 13%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 596 vs event baseline 197.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

454.7Season APEX463.8

30.1Auto43.2

106.5Teleop182.5

24.3Endgame84.3

116Consistency93

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	60	43
teleop	176	136
endgame	35	96
foul	15	35
total	286	310

Result

Final score

286 – 310

Prediction correct · off by 70.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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