Qualification · Qualification 27

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

205.82 – 199.12

52%48%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

224 – 98

Prediction correct · off by 59.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 326.3 ±16.5

6107CyberJagzz

Provisional

Season APEX 41.2Event APEX -18.64Rank 38Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

5740Trojanators

Season APEX 153.2Event APEX 149.74Rank 16Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1466Webb Robotics

Season APEX 131.9Event APEX 74.72Rank 9Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 289.9 ±17

4107Team Storm

Season APEX 105.7Event APEX 58.31Rank 20Record 5-4-1Status establishedConfidence 97

11037Clarksville Cyber Storm

Provisional

Season APEX 83.1Event APEX 80.25Rank 40Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

538Renaissance Robotics

Season APEX 101.1Event APEX 60.56Rank 32Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 89

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6107, 5740, 1466

/ 100 compat

Projected

205.8 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 6107, 5740, 1466

Auto

60.2 32%

Teleop

83.1 44%

Endgame

44.6 24%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4107, 11037, 538

/ 100 compat

Projected

199.1 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 4107, 11037, 538

Auto

46.6 23%

Teleop

107.6 54%

Endgame

44.5 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.71 · Blue 1.66

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score205.8pts

Blue projected score199.1pts

Red win probability52%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 63%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 6.7
Score range: 163–242
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 322 vs event baseline 199.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

326.3Season APEX289.9

60.2Auto46.6

83.1Teleop107.6

44.6Endgame44.5

62Consistency21

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	28
teleop	134	58
endgame	73	12
foul	0	0
total	224	98

Result

Final score

224 – 98

Prediction correct · off by 59.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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