Qualification · Qualification 20

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

116.46 – 233.37

19%81%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

238 – 226

Prediction missed · off by 64.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 442.6 ±16.2

11173STAR FORCE

Season APEX 126.3Event APEX 39.41Rank 15Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 91

6107CyberJagzz

Provisional

Season APEX 41.2Event APEX -14.85Rank 38Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

2783Engineers of Tomorrow

Season APEX 275.1Event APEX 91.9Rank 2Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 470 ±13.5

5740Trojanators

Season APEX 153.2Event APEX 146.25Rank 16Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3260SHARP

Season APEX 81.6Event APEX 12.05Rank 30Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 88

6517So-Kno Robo

Season APEX 235.2Event APEX 75.07Rank 21Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11173, 6107, 2783

/ 100 compat

Projected

116.5 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 11173, 6107, 2783

Auto

10.6 11%

Teleop

25.4 25%

Endgame

64.9 64%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 69%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5740, 3260, 6517

/ 100 compat

Projected

233.4 pts

~2.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 5740, 3260, 6517

Auto

40.5 20%

Teleop

118.3 57%

Endgame

48.0 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 69%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.14 · Blue 2.35

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score116.5pts

Blue projected score233.4pts

Red win probability19%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 69%, blue 67%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -116.9
Score range: 80–269
Upset likelihood: 19%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 464 vs event baseline 198.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

442.6Season APEX470

10.6Auto40.5

25.4Teleop118.3

64.9Endgame48

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	57
teleop	139	110
endgame	80	54
foul	0	5
total	238	226

Result

Final score

238 – 226

Prediction missed · off by 64.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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