Qualification · Qualification 2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

249.67 – 326.8

28%72%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

290 – 319

Prediction correct · off by 24.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 491.4 ±15.6

9401Midas' Mayhem

Season APEX 276.4Event APEX 158.43Rank 3Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1466Webb Robotics

Season APEX 131.9Event APEX 43.27Rank 9Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11037Clarksville Cyber Storm

Provisional

Season APEX 83.1Event APEX 47.97Rank 40Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 582.2 ±11.7

2556RadioActive Roaches

Season APEX 205.3Event APEX 112.05Rank 13Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2783Engineers of Tomorrow

Season APEX 275.1Event APEX 179.41Rank 2Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5492Winner's Circle Robo Jockey's

Season APEX 101.8Event APEX 35.34Rank 39Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 94

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9401, 1466, 11037

/ 100 compat

Projected

249.7 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 9401, 1466, 11037

Auto

55.0 22%

Teleop

128.6 52%

Endgame

65.7 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2556, 2783, 5492

/ 100 compat

Projected

326.8 pts

~2.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 2556, 2783, 5492

Auto

50.1 16%

Teleop

167.2 52%

Endgame

102.7 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.29 · Blue 2.21

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score249.7pts

Blue projected score326.8pts

Red win probability28%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 69%

Supercharged bonusred 9%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -77.1
Score range: 211–366
Upset likelihood: 28%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 609 vs event baseline 218.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

491.4Season APEX582.2

55Auto50.1

128.6Teleop167.2

65.7Endgame102.7

22Consistency51

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	66	39
teleop	160	151
endgame	59	129
foul	5	0
total	290	319

Result

Final score

290 – 319

Prediction correct · off by 24.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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