Qualification · Qualification 17

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

63.04 – 241.54

10%90%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

234 – 401

Prediction correct · off by 165.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 318.6 ±15.6

3984Topper Robotics

Season APEX 52.7Event APEX -9.94Rank 46Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5125Hawks on the Horizon

Provisional

Season APEX 53.6Event APEX -6.93Rank 43Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

2393Robotichauns

Season APEX 212.3Event APEX 79.91Rank 17Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 631.8 ±11

2556RadioActive Roaches

Season APEX 205.3Event APEX 89.24Rank 13Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9401Midas' Mayhem

Season APEX 276.4Event APEX 104.73Rank 3Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

744Shark Attack

Season APEX 150.1Event APEX 47.57Rank 12Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3984, 5125, 2393

/ 100 compat

Projected

63 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 3984, 5125, 2393

Auto

16.9 24%

Teleop

40.7 58%

Endgame

13.0 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2556, 9401, 744

/ 100 compat

Projected

241.5 pts

~2.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 2556, 9401, 744

Auto

28.3 12%

Teleop

124.6 53%

Endgame

80.6 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.8 · Blue 2.65

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score63pts

Blue projected score241.5pts

Red win probability10%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 74%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 9%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -178.5
Score range: 27–278
Upset likelihood: 10%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 635 vs event baseline 197.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

318.6Season APEX631.8

16.9Auto28.3

40.7Teleop124.6

13Endgame80.6

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	44	57
teleop	89	269
endgame	56	75
foul	45	0
total	234	401

Result

Final score

234 – 401

Prediction correct · off by 165.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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