Qualification · Qualification 16

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

63.26 – 55

53%47%

Actual result

Winner

Tie

Final score

167 – 167

Prediction correct · off by 107.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 323.2 ±13.3

7111RAD Robotics

Season APEX 134.7Event APEX 44.25Rank 8Record 7-2-1Status establishedConfidence 97

4107Team Storm

Season APEX 105.7Event APEX 16.24Rank 20Record 5-4-1Status establishedConfidence 97

7428Gigawatts

Season APEX 82.8Event APEX 2.77Rank 31Record 4-5-1Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 442.3 ±12.9

3201Ross Rambotics

Season APEX 133.9Event APEX 11.94Rank 18Record 6-3-1Status establishedConfidence 97

10961Hyper Wave

Season APEX 72.6Event APEX 11.98Rank 41Record 3-6-1Status establishedConfidence 89

3966Gryphon Command

Season APEX 235.8Event APEX 31.08Rank 4Record 7-2-1Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7111, 4107, 7428

/ 100 compat

Projected

63.3 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 7111, 4107, 7428

Auto

6.1 8%

Teleop

45.5 58%

Endgame

26.8 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3201, 10961, 3966

/ 100 compat

Projected

55 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 3201, 10961, 3966

Auto

12.1 16%

Teleop

49.3 66%

Endgame

13.1 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.76 · Blue 1.59

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score63.3pts

Blue projected score55pts

Red win probability53%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 64%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 8.3
Score range: 19–99
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 334 vs event baseline 199.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

323.2Season APEX442.3

6.1Auto12.1

45.5Teleop49.3

26.8Endgame13.1

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	40	26
teleop	74	81
endgame	48	60
foul	5	0
total	167	167

Result

Final score

167 – 167

Prediction correct · off by 107.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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