Qualification · Qualification 12

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

176.66 – 157.61

56%44%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

367 – 168

Prediction correct · off by 100.4 points

Limited current-season data (11 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 462.5 ±13.9

1912Team Combustion

Season APEX 202.5Event APEX 34.57Rank 7Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5740Trojanators

Season APEX 153.2Event APEX 61.69Rank 16Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7515Dark Side Robotics

Season APEX 106.8Event APEX 80.4Rank 24Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 91

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 369 ±13.5

5842Royal Robotics

Season APEX 82.5Event APEX 9.14Rank 42Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 94

5045SpartaBot

Season APEX 81.2Event APEX 62.57Rank 28Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 89

2556RadioActive Roaches

Season APEX 205.3Event APEX 85.9Rank 13Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1912, 5740, 7515

/ 100 compat

Projected

176.7 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 1912, 5740, 7515

Auto

39.5 22%

Teleop

110.3 62%

Endgame

28.4 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5842, 5045, 2556

/ 100 compat

Projected

157.6 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 5842, 5045, 2556

Auto

23.0 15%

Teleop

74.4 48%

Endgame

58.6 38%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.82 · Blue 1.57

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score176.7pts

Blue projected score157.6pts

Red win probability56%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 67%, blue 64%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 19
Score range: 124–211
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 535 vs event baseline 191.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

462.5Season APEX369

39.5Auto23

110.3Teleop74.4

28.4Endgame58.6

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	78	13
teleop	184	121
endgame	70	34
foul	35	0
total	367	168

Result

Final score

367 – 168

Prediction correct · off by 100.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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