Qualification · Qualification 11

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

211.32 – 224.45

46%54%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

282 – 417

Prediction correct · off by 131.6 points

Limited current-season data (10 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 601.6 ±11.7

9153Bearcat Robotics

Season APEX 112.9Event APEX 27.33Rank 27Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 95

2393Robotichauns

Season APEX 212.3Event APEX 92.29Rank 17Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9401Midas' Mayhem

Season APEX 276.4Event APEX 91.7Rank 3Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 686 ±11.7

1466Webb Robotics

Season APEX 131.9Event APEX 91.7Rank 9Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9067The Goonies

Season APEX 176.1Event APEX 35.64Rank 25Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2481Roboteers

Season APEX 378Event APEX 97.11Rank 1Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9153, 2393, 9401

/ 100 compat

Projected

211.3 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 9153, 2393, 9401

Auto

46.1 22%

Teleop

121.4 59%

Endgame

37.5 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1466, 9067, 2481

/ 100 compat

Projected

224.5 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 1466, 9067, 2481

Auto

43.3 19%

Teleop

132.2 59%

Endgame

50.2 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.64 · Blue 1.88

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score211.3pts

Blue projected score224.5pts

Red win probability46%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 65%, blue 65%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 13%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -13.1
Score range: 179–256
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 699 vs event baseline 175.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

601.6Season APEX686

46.1Auto43.3

121.4Teleop132.2

37.5Endgame50.2

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	47	101
teleop	146	242
endgame	89	59
foul	0	15
total	282	417

Result

Final score

282 – 417

Prediction correct · off by 131.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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