Qualification · Qualification 10

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

155.9 – 61.42

76%24%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

79 – 34

Prediction correct · off by 52.2 points

Limited current-season data (9 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 221.5 ±18.8

11037Clarksville Cyber Storm

Provisional

Season APEX 83.1Event APEX 82.86Rank 40Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

5125Hawks on the Horizon

Provisional

Season APEX 53.6Event APEX 14.57Rank 43Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

1308Wildcat Robotics

Season APEX 84.8Event APEX 58.47Rank 33Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 255.3 ±16

8624Sasquatch Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 48.1Event APEX 15.14Rank 47Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

3792Army Ants

Season APEX 154.5Event APEX 14.57Rank 29Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3984Topper Robotics

Season APEX 52.7Event APEX 31.71Rank 46Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11037, 5125, 1308

/ 100 compat

Projected

155.9 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 11037, 5125, 1308

Auto

36.3 24%

Teleop

86.9 56%

Endgame

30.8 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8624, 3792, 3984

/ 100 compat

Projected

61.4 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 8624, 3792, 3984

Auto

13.4 23%

Teleop

29.2 51%

Endgame

14.6 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.13 · Blue 0.98

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score155.9pts

Blue projected score61.4pts

Red win probability76%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 94.5
Score range: 27–190
Upset likelihood: 24%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 113 vs event baseline 189.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

221.5Season APEX255.3

36.3Auto13.4

86.9Teleop29.2

30.8Endgame14.6

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	13
teleop	33	8
endgame	7	13
foul	20	0
total	79	34

Result

Final score

79 – 34

Prediction correct · off by 52.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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