Qualification · Qualification 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

332.25 – 148.73

91%9%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

349 – 111

Prediction correct · off by 27.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 536.7 ±16.2

4306Robokomodos

Provisional

Season APEX 57.6Event APEX 8.37Rank 45Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

2481Roboteers

Season APEX 378Event APEX 297.34Rank 1Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

538Renaissance Robotics

Season APEX 101.1Event APEX 26.54Rank 32Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 89

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 464 ±11.7

3984Topper Robotics

Season APEX 52.7Event APEX 11.74Rank 46Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6517So-Kno Robo

Season APEX 235.2Event APEX 108.18Rank 21Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9067The Goonies

Season APEX 176.1Event APEX 28.81Rank 25Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4306, 2481, 538

/ 100 compat

Projected

332.3 pts

~2.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 4306, 2481, 538

Auto

77.3 24%

Teleop

188.5 57%

Endgame

62.1 19%

Strengths

· 2481 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3984, 6517, 9067

/ 100 compat

Projected

148.7 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 3984, 6517, 9067

Auto

33.6 24%

Teleop

67.8 49%

Endgame

36.8 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.51 · Blue 0.81

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score332.3pts

Blue projected score148.7pts

Red win probability91%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 183.5
Score range: 110–371
Upset likelihood: 9%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 460 vs event baseline 218.4.

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

536.7Season APEX464

77.3Auto33.6

188.5Teleop67.8

62.1Endgame36.8

20Consistency30

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	61	23
teleop	214	63
endgame	74	25
foul	0	0
total	349	111

Result

Final score

349 – 111

Prediction correct · off by 27.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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